Declan McBride's World Cup Predictions

Prepare to look back on this and laugh.

I have no doubt that some of these predictions will come back to haunt me, but in the spirit of the beautiful game and the best tournament in the world, I’ll set out my initial predictions for the Group Stages. With the expanded 48-team roster emerges even more opportunity to be absolutely wrong. Once these are wrapped up, I’ll come back and reflect (or mourn) these augers and assess how they level to reality or how much I’ve missed the mark. I’ll try to throw in some guesses about players who will or won’t shine here and there, but this really deserves a separate article. For now, let these stand as rough guesses or approximations about the outcomes of the group games – and fuel for future ridicule.

The groups are as follows:

Group A: Mexico (co-host), South Africa, South Korea, Czechia

Group B: Canada (co-host), Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar, Switzerland

Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland

Group D: United States (co-host), Paraguay, Australia, Turkey

Group E: Germany, Curaçao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador

Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia

Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand

Group H: Spain, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay

Group I: France, Senegal, Iraq, Norway

Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan

Group K: Portugal, DR Congo, Uzbekistan, Colombia

Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama

Before beginning, I should note that some groups are created better than others. The draw has blessed us with three exciting batches (and some less alluring ones). For the neutral, Groups C, F and I are my selections for must-watch fixtures across the board, with these proposing both the most entertaining fixtures, in theory, and the highest likelihood of upsets (in the case of C and F). I neglect to pick Group L, for reasons I fully intend to cover later on. I’ll try not to be weak in convictions for the top two in each group, but with some of these it will be nearly impossible to split. Let me know what you think, and explain why you think I’m wrong in the discussion. Here we go!

Group A

An exciting start. South Africa will all but certainly finish in dead last – no Tshabalala flag-dance this time round. The competition in this group will come from the other teams. Mexico on home soil will surely give a good account of themselves, and despite an aging squad without any true shoots of quality, I’d expect them to qualify for the Round of 16. A more difficult prospect comes from trying to separate the Czechs and South Koreans. South Korea famously beat Portugal four years ago to qualify for the Round of 16, eventually being battered by Brazil. They went unbeaten in 16 games in qualifying and will definitely be tough to beat. Czechia, on the other hand, haven’t played in a World Cup for 20 years, and despite also having a fruitful campaign in getting into this expanded World Cup, many fixtures were against easier sides. With this said, I would expect Mexico to secure top spot, with the South Koreans clinching second. This does not mean Czechia won’t qualify as one of the 8 best third-placed teams, but given some of the quality of other groups, and only one true whipping boy in Group A, I suspect they might bow out early.

Group B

Unfortunately, the Qataris will finish bottom. Despite some pundits suggesting that they will be physical and perform above their stations, a qualifying campaign that saw them come through in a play-off doesn’t bode well. I don’t think they will have enough to upset the applecart – Julen Lopetegui may have his chance to manage in the World Cup 8 years after his first opportunity, but it won’t be successful. Maybe there’s an outside chance of a result against Canada or Bosnia and Herzegovina, but I cannot see them beating the Swiss – who I would predict to finish top without too many issues. Switzerland, it should be said, would be a good prediction as a dark horse, qualifying well and having a strong and dependable starting 11. Captained by Granit Xhaka and bolstered by Manuel Akanji and Nottingham Forest forward Dan Ndoye, Switzerland could make waves in this tournament. Between the remaining two, I would edge towards the Canadians finishing second, partly down to home advantage – but they will need misfiring Jonathan David to step up if a real statement is to be made. Bosnia again should be looking at these third-place places going through as a very realistic opportunity, hoping to shake off an inconsistent qualifying run. Any team that finishes third in this group I would expect to go through.

Group C

Two words. Box-office. This is definitely a group to keep track of. It has the hallmarks of fun, excitement and drama written all over it. Apart from Haiti. Haiti will surely be on the end of three significant hidings in their first World Cup outing. One of the more difficult groups to split. I think Brazil have the quality advantage, and it will propel them to the top of the group – it will all depend on how the superstars take to Ancelotti’s influence. The talent is clearly there, but will they play as a team? Scotland, appearing for the first time in 28 years, are experiencing a bit of a golden generation and will fancy going through to the Round of 32. However, there is almost no worse group for them to have been drawn in than Group C. Morocco, buoyed by their exploits in 2022, going so far as being the first African team to make the semi-finals of the tournament, will be hoping to replicate the feat.

I do have reasons for doubt. There are always teams who perform well in one World Cup who cannot repeat their success four years on. They topped the group of death that year, then went on to eviscerate Spain 3-0, and beat Portugal, only falling to France, and subsequently Croatia, in the Third Place Play-Off. My first bold prediction here is that they finish third, with the Scots shocking the world to pip them to second. I do still think Morocco qualify, but their path to the latter stages will be much harder in light of this placement. My bold prediction is that Brazil do not keep up a 100% record, and I would expect Scotland and/or Morocco to draw with (or hopefully even scalp) The Little Canaries.

Group D

Immediately I’ll state that, whether through bias or actual rational thought, I do not fancy the Americans in this tournament. The same home advantage that I suggested would aid Mexico’s (and perhaps even Canada’s) campaign will not carry over to the Yanks. I do not think Pochettino’s men will fare well in this group, with Turkey and Paraguay (in that order) out-foxing them to secure the top two places. Turkey, incidentally, are another team to tip as a dark horse, with Kenan Yıldız and Arda Güler the two eye-catching young prospects who could cause any team in the competition trouble. Australia may prove a challenge, but I do expect them to finish bottom of the group despite a decent qualification campaign. As for the USA, I expect them to finish a disappointing third. Will they still sneak through in third place? If I had to come down on one side or the other, I don’t anticipate them being better than some of the prospects from other groups. I’d wager an early exit for the co-hosts.

Group E

Another interesting group here, and another one to watch for a third-place qualifier. Germany, while a shadow of their former selves, assembling a less than inspiring 26-man squad, still have undoubted quality, and more than enough to see them go through in first place. Unfortunately, despite the best efforts of former Brighton man Jürgen Locadia, Curaçao will bow out of their first World Cup in dead last. Without condescending, they will celebrate being there, and I would gladly cheer any goal they score in this group. I can see Ecuador giving a good showing, being best placed to challenge Germany for top spot. They qualified second out of the South American tranche and have talented players like Moisés Caicedo, Willian Pacho and Piero Hincapié, but they will finish second, with the Ivory Coast finishing third. Will the Ivory Coast still go through? I think they have the quality in attack, with Diomandé, Guessand and Diallo, among others, to cause some of these teams problems, but they will still finish behind the solidness Germany and Ecuador can put out. However, they look to be one of the best of the rest – I would tip them to go through to the Round of 32.

Group F

Like Group C, F is absolutely one to tune in for. Packed with interesting teams and potential dark horses, this of all the groups is the most fraught with prediction difficulty. The only thing I can be certain on, though, as certain as one can be at this early stage, is that Graham Potter’s Sweden will not be one of the top two. The Netherlands, similar to Germany, have a less inspiring squad than in recent years, but a resurgent Donyell Malen (post-Roma move) and a formidable defensive selection will force them into top spot – from here we’ll see if they have the legs to really compete. Between Japan, Sweden and Tunisia, though, it’s difficult to split. Despite falling in the Round of 16 in 2022, Japan were good enough to beat Spain and Germany to qualify top of a difficult group then, and I think they’ll have enough to finish second this time around. While my head tells me that Sweden are better than Tunisia, they did have to qualify through play-offs to make the tournament, and I just have a feeling that Tunisia could be an outside shout for tournament dark horses – although there is no real rhyme or reason to this, besides me predicting Sweden underwhelming. With this in mind, and with the expectation that I’ll look particularly stupid in 2-3 weeks’ time, I suspect that Sweden may finish bottom of a tough group.

Group G

I think this is the easiest group to predict. Famous last words, I’m sure. It reads on my World Cup pull-out as Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand; and this is exactly how I expect the standings to be by the end of the Group Stage. Even though the Belgian golden age is slowly dwindling, with few incumbents to replace the world-class talents that have since retired, they will count themselves lucky to have been drawn in such an easy group. An unbeaten qualifying campaign doesn’t tell the full story, as they were drawn in an easy group then – this could be a perfect storm. Belgium’s best-ever player, Kevin De Bruyne, will be the difference-maker, with Jérémy Doku and Romelu Lukaku the main goal outlets. Egypt, with the firepower of Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush, will be making up for a less-than-stellar defensive line-up, but will surely have enough to clinch second place. Recent Barcelona signing Hamza Abdelkarim will also be among the ranks, and it will be interesting to see whether the Catalans’ newcomer can be a superstar in the making. I don’t think much will split Iran and New Zealand, but I think either will be lucky to pick up more than one point, with the All Whites just missing out on goal difference.

Group H

Spain come into this as one of the tournament favourites, and with a far superior squad than the other three teams in their group, I expect them to have an unbeaten group campaign after an unbeaten qualifying campaign. Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay has a few established names throughout the team and should finish second, although the Round of 32 could be their exit ramp, unless Darwin Núñez can shake off a poor run of form since joining Al Hilal. Akin to Group G, the bottom two teams’ fortunes are a struggle to separate. I would edge towards Saudi Arabia finishing third, but again only on the benefit of goal difference, as I can’t see them beating Cape Verde – securing a draw in what could be my pick for the tournament’s game to miss – nor can I envisage them repeating the heights of a shock victory against winners Argentina at this stage four years ago.

Group I

Another excellent group. Starting off with the obvious, I fully expect France to win the group, and to do so with a 100% record – building on their unbeaten qualifying record. They boast the deepest selection pool in world football, and should cruise through the Group Stage with no problems. Kylian Mbappé could well go on to break the World Cup goal-scoring record at just 27 years old, with form player Michael Olise among their wealth of riches. They’re one of the two or three tournament favourites, and for them not to progress to the semi-finals as a minimum would be a disappointment given the talent they have at their disposal. Contrarily, Iraq will finish last, and likely be roundly beaten by the three other members of the group. Senegal, African Cup of Nations winners (or not), have a pretty rancid record in recent World Cups, but a talented squad throughout, with more quality spread across it than Norway’s. Norway, on the other hand, had a perfect qualifying campaign, and an attack that on paper could be devastating – with Erling Haaland and Antonio Nusa just a few names from a deep attacking selection. On balance, though, I predict Senegal to finish ahead of them in the group, with Norway one of the more likely teams to get through to the Round of 32 as one of the third-placed teams. I predict a lot of goals in this group regardless of the final standings, though.

Group J

The holders, Argentina, should top the group with little difficulty after topping their qualifying group. It will be Lionel Messi’s last World Cup, but I doubt they’ll repeat their heroics from four years ago. Between Algeria and Austria, I suspect that there might be an early upset, however, and Argentina might end up topping the group with 6 points. Algeria finished top of their qualifying group, but besides Riyad Mahrez and Rayan Aït-Nouri they possess little stand-out quality. With this in mind, I think Austria will have enough to pip them to second, and they’ll be one of the teams to keep an eye on, with one of the high priests of high pressing, Ralf Rangnick, at the helm. By the end of the group stage, Jordan will be run through.

Group K

One of the less exciting groups on paper, Portugal will likely finish top in what could be Cristiano Ronaldo’s last World Cup. Although, if he is to be believed, he might force his way into the squad in 2030. For now, though, Portugal have one of the best starting 11s in the tournament and by all rights should perform well after topping their qualifying group. As is the story with Portugal over the last 20 years, however, they always flatter to deceive and, in spite of them assembling the best squad in a generation, I have an inkling this trend will continue later in the tournament. Colombia will finish second, and we will hope for more James Rodríguez World Cup magic, but their squad outclasses the other two members of Group K, with Luis Díaz the in-form player. Usually, I would tip DR Congo to finish third, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Uzbekistan will prove to be more than the sum of their parts, even though they have a far less notable squad, with only Abdukodir Khusanov a recognisable name to most fans.

Group L

Finally, we can talk about England. All in good time. Panama will finish bottom, almost without a fight, maybe snatching a draw against Ghana. Ghana themselves will finish third despite a few notable players who could offer some attacking threat; with Antoine Semenyo, Iñaki Williams and veteran captain Jordan Ayew, and a strong showing in qualifying, albeit against a weaker collection of teams. In what will be the last dance for Croatia’s greatest national team ever, they will finish second. I highly doubt, however, that they will be able to replicate the remarkable World Cup results of recent times, but Luka Modrić, Joško Gvardiol and Josip Stanišić will be hoping to recreate past glories. England should absolutely finish top of this group without breaking a sweat. They have far and away the best 26-man squad in the group, and are one of the favourites to win the whole tournament. I’ll withhold judgment for now, but a mixed tenure for Thomas Tuchel so far will be quickly forgotten if England do end up adding a second star to the shirt. Unlike the other 47 teams in this list of predictions, I will go out on a limb by guessing that England will beat Ghana and Panama (hopefully in emphatic fashion), and then draw with Croatia. With the intense heat and quality in depth, I expect that most of the squad will get minutes in these 3 games, with players on the periphery given a chance to force their way into the starting 11 for the latter stages. Bellingham or Rogers and Rashford or Gordon remain the two most pressing questions for the England boss, and all four will certainly get the chance to prove their worth.

Beyond the group stage… that’s for another article – although very early on I stick my neck out and predict that the eight third-placed teams who get through to the Round of 32 will be: Czechia, Canada, Morocco, Ivory Coast, Austria, Ghana, Norway, Algeria.